How much cash does Gran Tierra really make, and what is a share of it worth?

The words on this page

Real cash (true cash)

What was left in the bank each year after every bill, every tax payment and every well drilled. Not profit, and not "cash flow" as companies usually quote it, which leaves the drilling out. The strictest number there is.

Required return

The yearly return you insist on for taking the risk. A dollar promised in ten years is worth less than a dollar today; this rate says how much less. 9% is a common professional figure for a large Canadian producer; the reserve engineers use 10%.

Well life (reserve life)

How long the wells keep producing. After the life you choose, nothing is counted. McDaniel evaluated 258 million boe of proved plus probable reserves at 31 December 2025 (142 million boe proved), with Canada holding 44 per cent of the 2P and 39 per cent of the proved barrels. Against 2025's working interest production of 45,709 boe a day (16.7 million boe a year) that is a 15.5 year 2P reserve life and 8.5 years proved. The agreed sale of Colombia and Ecuador would hand roughly 144 million barrels of that 2P to Maurel and Prom.

What a share is worth

Every future year's cash, shrunk back to today's dollars at your required return, added up, less the debt, less the cost of cleaning up the wells, divided by the number of shares. Pay less than this and you earn more than your required return; pay more and you earn less.

Where the default growth comes from

With the South American sale agreed and Canada the intended go-forward business, ten years of history is a poor guide to what comes next, so the growth dial starts at 0 per cent.

The arithmetic, step by step

1. Count the real cash each past year: cash generated by operations as reported, plus interest paid put back, minus rent on leases, minus every dollar spent on wells and plants. Buying and selling assets is shown separately.
2. Project it. The starting cash you choose (an average of the history, or the latest year) grows at your growth dial for ten years, then at the long-run rate for as long as the wells keep producing. Nothing is counted after the well life ends.
3. Bring it back to today. Each year's cash is shrunk by your required return, counted at mid-year because cash arrives through the year rather than on 31 December.
4. Turn it into a share value. Add up the shrunk cash; take off net debt of US$479M; take off the US$123M cost of cleaning up the wells if that switch is on; divide by 35.38M shares.
5. Work it backwards. "The growth today's price assumes" is the ten-year growth rate at which this start is worth exactly the share price.

Where the numbers come from

• Every figure is in US dollars under US GAAP. Operating cash flow, cash interest paid, lease payments and capital spending for every year from 2016 to 2025 were hand-checked on 1 September 2026 against the audited consolidated statements of cash flows and the cash-paid-for-interest disclosures in the fiscal 2018, 2021, 2024 and 2025 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR; every figure matched the filings to the thousand of dollars.
• In 2026 Gran Tierra agreed to sell substantially all of its Colombia and Ecuador operations to Maurel and Prom for US$1.33 billion enterprise value. The history on this page describes a company about to change shape, so treat any projection of past cash flow with real doubt until the deal closes or breaks.
• The share counts are adjusted for the 1-for-10 reverse split of May 2023; earlier years' reported counts were divided by ten so every year is on today's share basis.
• This is a country-risk story as much as an oil story: Colombian security, pipeline disruptions, local blockades and tax changes have repeatedly moved results, and the large 2016, 2020 and 2025 net losses include impairments of US$616 million, US$560 million and US$136 million.
• The acquisitions column is taken from the audited investing sections: business combinations, property acquisitions and investments, net of dispositions. 2016 is the US$488.2 million PetroLatina purchase plus US$19.4 million of property acquisitions less US$8.3 million of disposals; 2017 to 2019 include property acquisitions of US$34.4, US$53.2 and US$77.8 million that aggregated data omits; 2021 is the sale of the entire PetroTal share stake for US$43.1 million; 2024 is the US$162.7 million i3 Energy purchase net of US$44.4 million of dispositions; 2025 nets US$4.5 million of property purchases against US$7.9 million of proceeds.
• Interest is the cash interest paid net, as filed; it has grown with the senior notes and averaged about US$60 million a year lately, which is why the true cash line depends heavily on adding it back.
• Lease figures are finance lease principal payments only, nil before the 2019-2020 accounting change; US GAAP keeps operating lease payments inside operating costs, so they are already deducted from cash flow.
• Net debt for 2016 to 2020 is long-term debt excluding leases less cash from the filings; 2021 to 2025 includes finance leases. The company's own year-end 2025 net debt of US$657.6 million uses the face value of its notes. The US$479 million shown as current is the company's reported net debt at 30 June 2026.
• Gran Tierra has never paid a dividend; shareholder returns have come through episodic buybacks.
• Per-year production is left off the history because a consistent ten year working interest series was not compiled; 2024 and 2025 averaged 34,710 and 45,709 boe a day.
• Analyst targets: average US$21.60 across 6 analysts (stockanalysis.com analyst consensus, US listing, in US$, 28 August 2026).

For the technically minded

The method is the one used to evaluate capital projects, from Ted Lawrence, The Business Guide to Economic Evaluations: Projects, Leases, Tariffs and Acquisitions (2017). "Real cash" is the book's project cash flow (chapter 3) with depreciation, debt servicing and debt-like leases restructured out (chapters 4, 5 and 19); short operating leases stay in as a cost of producing, a chapter 19 judgment. The value per share follows the share-purchase evaluation of chapter 20: present value of the company's cash flows at the cost of capital (chapter 10), mid-year discounting (chapter 12), plus non-required assets, less net debt and the decommissioning liability. "What you gain or lose" is the bid-curve NPV of chapter 20; "when you get your money back" is the discounted payout of chapter 13; the bars follow the project profile of chapter 6. The reverse solve on growth is a plain reverse DCF.

Discount-rate anchors: 9% is a common cost-of-equity figure for a large Canadian producer and 10% is the reserve-report convention (PV10). The long-run rate defaults to 0% here: a depleting resource should not be assumed to grow forever, so anything above zero is a judgment you make with the dial.