A plain-cash valuation · NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
How much cash does Nvidia really make, and what is a share of it worth?
Nvidia reported a profit of US$120 billion last year. That is an accountant's number. This page counts only the cash that was actually left over each year, after every bill was paid and every piece of equipment bought, then asks the only question that matters to an owner: what is one share worth, and how does that compare with the price? The rules come from the calculations economists and engineers use to decide whether a project is worth building, applied to a whole company.
data to 26 July 2026 (Q2 FY2027) · price US$227.98 (close of 27 August 2026) · built 28 Aug 2026What Nvidia really earned, and what you are assuming it will earn
Solid bars are audited history: the real cash left each year after every bill was paid and every piece of equipment bought. Striped bars are your projection. Nvidia's financial year ends in late January, so "FY2026" ended on 25 January 2026.
Table view: every year, US$ millions
| Financial year | Status | Real cash left | Per share |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2012 | audited | 734.0 | $0.03 |
| FY2013 | audited | 603.3 | $0.02 |
| FY2014 | audited | 536.4 | $0.02 |
| FY2015 | audited | 750.3 | $0.03 |
| FY2016 | audited | 1,058.0 | $0.05 |
| FY2017 | audited | 1,463.0 | $0.06 |
| FY2018 | audited | 2,910.0 | $0.12 |
| FY2019 | audited | 3,118.0 | $0.12 |
| FY2020 | audited | 4,223.0 | $0.17 |
| FY2021 | audited | 4,674.0 | $0.19 |
| FY2022 | audited | 8,141.0 | $0.32 |
| FY2023 | audited | 3,820.0 | $0.15 |
| FY2024 | audited | 26,913.0 | $1.08 |
| FY2025 | audited | 60,657.0 | $2.45 |
| FY2026 | audited | 96,406.0 | $3.93 |
| FY2027 | projected | 187,592.2 | $7.77 |
| FY2028 | projected | 311,194.0 | $12.89 |
| FY2029 | projected | 367,208.9 | $15.21 |
| FY2030 | projected | 425,437.7 | $17.62 |
| FY2031 | projected | 483,783.5 | $20.03 |
| FY2032 | projected | 539,764.1 | $22.35 |
| FY2033 | projected | 590,656.2 | $24.46 |
| FY2034 | projected | 633,689.7 | $26.24 |
| FY2035 | projected | 666,279.4 | $27.59 |
| FY2036 | projected | 686,267.8 | $28.42 |
| FY2037 | projected | 706,855.9 | $29.27 |
| FY2038 | projected | 728,061.5 | $30.15 |
| FY2039 | projected | 749,903.4 | $31.05 |
| FY2040 | projected | 772,400.5 | $31.98 |
| FY2041 | projected | 795,572.5 | $32.94 |
| FY2042 | projected | 819,439.7 | $33.93 |
| FY2043 | projected | 844,022.9 | $34.95 |
| FY2044 | projected | 869,343.5 | $36.00 |
| FY2045 | projected | 895,423.8 | $37.08 |
| FY2046 | projected | 922,286.6 | $38.19 |
If you bought one share today
The red bar is what you pay. Yellow years pay you back, including the return you asked for. Green years are pure profit on top. If there is no green, you paid more than the cash is worth.
At these settings you never get US$227.98 back with a 10.0% return within 20 years. Buying at US$227.98 loses you $25.39 a share in today's dollars.
What a share is worth under different assumptions
Your required return down the side, years Nvidia stays on top across the top. Your current setting is outlined; the dashed cells are within 10% of today's price. Blue means worth more than US$227.98, red means worth less.
Growth, the starting point and the switches above all carry through. Every cell is the same arithmetic as the big number at the top.
Three honest answers
Same cash, same arithmetic. The only thing that changes between these three is how long you believe Nvidia stays ahead of everyone else. Nobody knows that number, and most valuations hide it inside the maths. Here it is out in the open.
Every price target is really a guess about years
One curve: what a share is worth as you extend the years Nvidia stays on top, at your settings. The published numbers are drawn across it, and the dot on each line shows how many years that number is quietly assuming. The dashed line at the top is "forever".
At a 10.0% required return on this projection, the 27 August close of US$227.98 assumes 26 years on top. The analysts' US$323 needs more than even forever gives at this return; Morningstar's US$310 needs more than even forever gives at this return. A forever stream growing at +3.0% a year is worth $290.20.
Average analyst target US$323 (US$323.42 across 61 analysts, stockanalysis.com, 28 Aug 2026; the lowest says US$180, the highest US$515). Analysts' targets are a multiple of next year's forecast profit, not a count of the cash. Morningstar, the independent research house, is reported to say US$310 (27 Aug 2026; a search excerpt, its page could not be loaded). Aswath Damodaran, the New York University professor known for valuation, last published a full model in January 2025 at US$78; his December 2025 post frames Nvidia as a break-even revenue question and gives no per-share value. Other online calculators on 28 Aug 2026: US$233, US$226, and US$191 or US$317 depending on whether they count five years or ten. Sources are listed in Maple Groove's research note for this model, available on request.
From the profit in the headlines to the cash in the bank, FY2026
Reported profit is an accountant's number. Here it is worked down, line by line, to the cash that was actually left after every bill and every purchase of equipment. Figures in US$ millions from the audited accounts for the year ended 25 January 2026.
| FY2026, US$ millions | |
|---|---|
| Profit, as reported | 120,067.0 |
| + Depreciation (equipment cost spread over years: not cash) | 2,843.0 |
| + Shares handed to staff (paid in shares, not cash) | 6,386.0 |
| ± Tax booked but not paid this year | −1,424.0 |
| − Paper gains on shares in other companies | −8,918.0 |
| ± Other non-cash items | −287.0 |
| ± Cash tied up in customers owing money and inventory | −15,949.0 |
| = Cash generated by operations (as audited) | 102,718.0 |
| + Interest paid, put back (estimated) | 259.0 |
| − Rent on leased buildings | −428.0 |
| − Every dollar spent on equipment | −6,143.0 |
| = Real cash left for owners | 96,406.0 |
| Per share (24,514M) | $3.93 |
| For comparison: paid out as buybacks and dividends | 41,060.0 |
| For comparison: spent buying companies (Groq licence) | 14,535.0 |
| For comparison: spent buying stakes in AI companies | 17,418.0 |
What we take out, and why
- Depreciation (US$2.8B): accountants spread the cost of equipment over years. We ignore that and count the cash actually spent on equipment in the year it went out. For Nvidia it is small, because TSMC and the memory makers own the factories.
- Paper gains on other companies (US$8.9B): Nvidia owns shares in Intel, SpaceX, CoreWeave and private AI firms. When those rise, reported profit rises, but no cash arrives until they are sold. The stakes are counted separately with the switches above.
- Tax booked but not paid: only the tax actually paid counts (US$20.3B last year).
- Shares handed to staff (US$6.4B): Nvidia pays part of its people in shares. No cash leaves, but every owner's slice gets a little smaller. Nvidia buys back more shares than it hands out, so the switch above treats the awards as a cash cost instead and keeps the share count steady. Never both.
- Cash tied up in the business (US$15.9B): customers owed Nvidia more, and inventory grew, as the business doubled. That cash is real but not in the bank yet, so it stays out. When growth slows, it flows back.
- Interest paid (about US$0.3B): put back. Interest is the price of borrowed money, and your required return already charges for the price of money, so every company is judged the same way whether it borrows or not.
- Rent on leased buildings (US$0.4B): taken out as paid. Nvidia has signed US$45B of data-centre leases that have not started yet; this line will grow.
- Every dollar spent on equipment (US$6.1B): taken out in full. Buying companies (the US$13B Groq licence) and buying stakes in AI firms (US$17.4B) are shown separately: they buy assets, not this year's production.
What fifteen years of accounts say
Every single year left real cash for owners. The question is not whether Nvidia makes money; it is how many more years of the last three the price is asking you to believe in.
Every financial year, US$ millions (audited; H1 FY2027 is the six months to 26 July 2026, unaudited)
| US$ millions | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | H1 FY2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,997.9 | 4,280.2 | 4,130.2 | 4,681.5 | 5,010.0 | 6,910.0 | 9,714.0 | 11,716.0 | 10,918.0 | 16,675.0 | 26,914.0 | 26,974.0 | 60,922.0 | 130,497.0 | 215,938.0 | 177,837.0 |
| Profit, as reported | 581.1 | 562.5 | 440.0 | 630.6 | 614.0 | 1,666.0 | 3,047.0 | 4,141.0 | 2,796.0 | 4,332.0 | 9,752.0 | 4,368.0 | 29,760.0 | 72,880.0 | 120,067.0 | 118,010.0 |
| Cash generated by operations (as audited) | 909.2 | 824.2 | 835.1 | 905.7 | 1,175.0 | 1,672.0 | 3,502.0 | 3,743.0 | 4,761.0 | 5,822.0 | 9,108.0 | 5,641.0 | 28,090.0 | 64,089.0 | 102,718.0 | 74,421.0 |
| + Interest paid, put back | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 17.2 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 54.0 | 138.0 | 246.0 | 254.0 | 252.0 | 246.0 | 259.0 | 329.0 |
| − Rent on leased buildings | −39.5 | −40.4 | −46.0 | −50.2 | −48.0 | −46.0 | −54.0 | −80.0 | −103.0 | −141.0 | −154.0 | −184.0 | −286.0 | −313.0 | −428.0 | −353.0 |
| − Spent on equipment | −138.7 | −183.3 | −255.2 | −122.4 | −86.0 | −176.0 | −593.0 | −600.0 | −489.0 | −1,145.0 | −1,059.0 | −1,891.0 | −1,143.0 | −3,365.0 | −6,143.0 | −4,526.0 |
| = Real cash left for owners | 734.0 | 603.3 | 536.4 | 750.3 | 1,058.0 | 1,463.0 | 2,910.0 | 3,118.0 | 4,223.0 | 4,674.0 | 8,141.0 | 3,820.0 | 26,913.0 | 60,657.0 | 96,406.0 | 69,871.0 |
| Real cash per share, US$ | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.03 | $0.05 | $0.06 | $0.12 | $0.12 | $0.17 | $0.19 | $0.32 | $0.15 | $1.08 | $2.45 | $3.93 | $2.88 |
| Shares handed to staff (not taken out above) | 136.4 | 136.7 | 136.3 | 157.8 | 204.0 | 247.0 | 391.0 | 557.0 | 844.0 | 1,397.0 | 2,004.0 | 2,709.0 | 3,549.0 | 4,737.0 | 6,386.0 | 3,955.0 |
| Tax actually paid | 58.3 | −38.6 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 61.0 | 176.0 | 249.0 | 396.0 | 1,404.0 | 6,549.0 | 15,118.0 | 20,288.0 | |
| Spent buying companies (incl. Groq licence) | −348.9 | 0.0 | −17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −8,524.0 | −263.0 | −49.0 | −83.0 | −1,007.0 | −14,535.0 | −3,242.0 |
| Spent buying stakes in AI companies, net | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | −36.0 | −9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −77.0 | −861.0 | −1,315.0 | −17,418.0 | −27,163.0 |
| Spent buying back shares | 0.0 | −100.0 | −887.3 | −813.6 | −587.0 | −739.0 | −909.0 | −1,579.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −10,039.0 | −9,533.0 | −33,706.0 | −40,086.0 | −39,044.0 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | −46.9 | −181.3 | −186.5 | −213.0 | −261.0 | −341.0 | −371.0 | −390.0 | −395.0 | −399.0 | −398.0 | −395.0 | −834.0 | −974.0 | −6,290.0 |
| Dividends per share, US$ (split-adjusted) | $0.000 | $0.002 | $0.008 | $0.009 | $0.010 | $0.012 | $0.014 | $0.015 | $0.016 | $0.016 | $0.016 | $0.016 | $0.016 | $0.034 | $0.040 | $0.260 |
| Cash after debt (cash + bonds held − notes owed) | 3,130.0 | 3,728.0 | 3,172.0 | 3,123.0 | 3,537.0 | 3,971.0 | 5,093.0 | 5,422.0 | 8,897.0 | 4,561.0 | 10,208.0 | 2,296.0 | 16,234.0 | 34,329.0 | 41,170.0 | 23,086.0 |
| Purchases promised but not yet made | 602.0 | 515.0 | 439.0 | 507.0 | 427.0 | 1,039.0 | 1,466.0 | 1,170.0 | 1,342.0 | 2,857.0 | 10,296.0 | 8,063.0 | 20,707.0 | 45,079.0 | 137,000.0 | 366,000.0 |
| Shares, millions (split-adjusted, diluted average) | 24,655 | 24,998 | 23,781 | 22,523 | 22,760 | 25,960 | 25,280 | 25,000 | 24,720 | 25,120 | 25,350 | 25,070 | 24,940 | 24,804 | 24,514 | 24,285 |
| Shares in issue at period end, millions | 24,488 | 24,670 | 22,720 | 21,797 | 21,560 | 23,400 | 24,240 | 24,240 | 24,480 | 24,800 | 25,060 | 24,660 | 24,640 | 24,477 | 24,304 | 24,100 |
How the maths works, and what to be careful about
The words on this page
- Real cash (true cash)
- What was left in the bank each year after every bill, every tax payment and every purchase of equipment. Not profit, not "cash flow" as companies like to define it. The strictest number there is.
- Required return
- The yearly return you insist on for taking the risk. A dollar promised in ten years is worth less than a dollar today; this rate says how much less. 10% is what professionals use for chip makers; the stock market as a whole is about 8%.
- Years on top
- How long Nvidia keeps earning far more than its rivals before competition, customers building their own chips, or a downturn bring it back to earth. Oil companies have reserves that run out; a technology company has this instead.
- What a share is worth
- Every future year's cash, shrunk back to today's dollars at your required return, added up, adjusted for spare cash and debt, divided by the number of shares. Pay less than this and you earn more than your required return; pay more and you earn less.
- Forever
- Most analyst spreadsheets forecast ten years and then add a single number for every year after that, out to infinity. It usually accounts for more than half the answer. The "Forever" button shows you what that assumption is worth.
The arithmetic, step by step
- Count the real cash each past year: cash generated by operations as audited, plus interest put back, minus rent on leased buildings, minus every dollar spent on equipment. Buying companies (Mellanox for US$7.1B in FY2021, the Groq licence for US$13B in FY2026) and buying stakes in AI firms are shown separately.
- Project it. On the standard setting, year 1 is Wall Street's average forecast for the current year (US$200.9B) and year 2 is Nvidia's own guide of 70% more revenue next year, at the same cash margin (US$333B). From year 3 growth starts at your dial and eases in a straight line down to the long-run rate by year 10, then runs at that rate for as many years as you allow. "Forever" adds a never-ending stream after year 10, growing at the long-run rate.
- Bring it back to today. Each year's cash is shrunk by your required return, counted at mid-year because cash arrives through the year rather than on 31 December.
- Turn it into a share value. Add up the shrunk cash; take off the US$33.5B of notes Nvidia owes; add the cash it holds above a US$20B working balance (US$36.6B); add the stakes you switched on (US$42.8B listed, US$51.2B private); take off the loan guarantees if you switched them on (US$108.5B); divide by 24,150M shares. Purchase commitments (US$366B) are chips and memory to be sold at a 72% to 75% margin, not borrowings, so they are not deducted; the US$4.9B written off on chips built for China is the precedent for what happens when demand vanishes.
- Shares handed to staff: when the switch is on, 6.6% of each projected year's cash (last year's ratio) is taken out and the share count is held at 24,150M. When it is off, nothing is taken out and no dilution is assumed.
Where the numbers come from
- Nvidia stopped disclosing the cash interest it pays in FY2026; the interest expense in the accounts (US$259M; US$329M in the first half of FY2027) stands in. All its debt is fixed-rate, so the difference is tiny.
- Year 2 is a revenue guide from the company, not a cash forecast: 70% more revenue at this year's expected cash margin of about 49%. Management said supply, not demand, limits the 70%.
- The "latest twelve months" starting point (US$126.9B) is from a data aggregator; the yearly figures are from the filings.
- The share count is held steady. Buybacks currently retire about 1% of shares a year after staff awards; that is not counted either way.
- Sales of data-centre chips to China are effectively zero in Nvidia's guidance and in this model; any return of that business is upside, not in the numbers.
- The share price, US$227.98, is the close of 27 August 2026 from a data aggregator (stockanalysis.com), not a filing; the next session, 28 August, closed at US$217.55, down 4.57%. Every figure on this page that mentions the price uses the 27 August close.
- The analysts' average target (US$323.42 across 61 analysts) and the FY2027 cash forecast (US$200.86B) were re-checked on stockanalysis.com on 28 August 2026. The Morningstar (US$310) and Alpha Spread (10.0%) figures are search excerpts: both sites block automated access, so neither could be re-loaded, and they should be re-checked before being quoted anywhere.
- Three customers were 16%, 15% and 13% of revenue in the first half of FY2027, and one AI lab buys a meaningful amount through them. The growth dial is where that risk lives.
For the technically minded
The method is the one used to evaluate capital projects, from Ted Lawrence, The Business Guide to Economic Evaluations: Projects, Leases, Tariffs and Acquisitions (2017). "Real cash" is the book's project cash flow (chapter 3) with depreciation, debt servicing and debt-like leases restructured out (chapters 4, 5 and 19). The value per share follows the share-purchase evaluation of chapter 20: present value of the company's cash flows at the cost of capital (chapter 10), mid-year discounting (chapter 12), plus non-required assets, less debt. "When you get your money back" is the discounted payout of chapter 13. "Forever" is the chapter 22 terminal value, placed at the end of year 10 with growth held below the discount rate. The "years on top" control replaces the reserve life of a resource company; the reverse solve on years is the competitive-advantage period of Mauboussin and Johnson (1997).
Discount-rate anchors: 10% is Damodaran's January 2026 cost of capital for the US semiconductor industry; 8% is the S&P 500 implied cost of equity; 11% is Morningstar's above-average bucket; 14% is a raw five-year beta of 2.2, which practitioners shrink. Online calculators, checked 28 August 2026: valueinvesting.io 10.8% (its weighted cost of capital; the 10.75% on that page is a tax-rate input), GuruFocus 11% (its GF Value moves daily, US$342 to US$389 in recent months, so it is not quoted here), Alpha Spread 10.0% (a search excerpt, its page could not be loaded). Long-run growth is capped below the 4.66% ten-year Treasury yield.
Sources
- Ted Lawrence, The Business Guide to Economic Evaluations: Projects, Leases, Tariffs and Acquisitions (2017). Chapters used: 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13, 19, 20 and 22.
- NVIDIA Corporation: Forms 10-K for fiscal years 2012 to 2026 (audited consolidated statements and notes); Forms 10-Q for the quarters ended 26 April and 26 July 2026; Form 8-K exhibits (Q2 FY2027 earnings release and CFO commentary, 26 August 2026; senior notes offering, 18 June 2026; SB Energy guaranties, 17 August 2026). All from SEC EDGAR, CIK 0001045810.
- Discount-rate and practice research: Federal Reserve H.15 (10-year Treasury 4.66%, 26 Aug 2026); Damodaran (implied ERP 4.28%, Aug 2026; semiconductor industry cost of capital 10.55%, Jan 2026; NVDA valuation, Jan 2025; stable growth not above the risk-free rate); Kroll (US ERP 5.0%); Morningstar methodology and NVDA fair value; Mauboussin and Johnson on the competitive advantage period; consensus and targets from stockanalysis.com and MarketBeat; Bank of Canada (USD/CAD 1.3861, 27 Aug 2026); Berkshire Hathaway 1986 letter (owner earnings). The full research note with URLs is kept in Maple Groove's record for this model and is available on request.